Visa unveils AI shopping benchmark predicts holiday boost

Visa Inc. is preparing for the growth of agentic commerce, a shopping channel that uses AI models to make purchases. The company has released its Agentic Commerce Benchmark, a tool that tests AI models’ ability to shop on websites.

The benchmark evaluated 22 AI models from 12 providers, including Gemini, Claude, Muse, and Grok, on 15 shopping scenarios. Its methodology involved simulating a shopper’s journey from product discovery to checkout, measuring how accurately each AI could interpret prompts. Each scenario tested the model’s ability to handle price comparisons, stock availability, and shipping options.

The best-performing models achieved a pass rate of 82.2%, while the worst-performing models had a pass rate of 28.9%. Overall, the pass rate was 57.2%. However, 54% of failed runs still ended up with AI deciding to make the purchase, often because it recommended a purchase that did not meet the customer’s requirements or failed to uncover all the customer’s requirements. When the AI chose to complete a transaction despite missing requirements, it highlighted gaps in current conversational understanding.

In related news, the company predicts that U.S. holiday shopping sales will increase by 4.5% compared to the 2025 holiday season. Consumers are expected to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts, up 5.6% from $736 in 2025. This is the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021.

Physical gifts are likely to be prioritized over experiences, with 27% of consumers prioritizing physical gifts compared to 15% who prioritize experience spending. Retailers stocking toys, electronics, and home décor may see stronger demand than those focused on experience-based vouchers. Additionally, households earning more than $200,000 annually are expected to increase both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September, while lower-income groups are pulling back on airfare bookings and spending. “That could work in retailers’ favor,” Visa says, “because VBEI’s holiday sales measure focuses on retail and excludes travel and dining, dollars that might otherwise have gone toward holiday trips could instead flow toward physical gifts and other merchandise.”